SOURCE: Bloomberg

One of the questions I am asked most frequently about betting on the National Football League is whether it is wise to follow market moves.

The question usually comes from someone in the finance industry, where momentum trading and following the ``smart money'' is a well-known strategy. If it works on Wall Street, why shouldn't it work in sports betting?

Sports bookies in Las Vegas are happy to take a bet from someone with a history of winning through shrewd judgment, as long as they can then immediately change the odds to cut their risk.

These bets, known in the sports-betting business as ``steam plays,'' usually originate from a team of professional gamblers who send junior staff into casinos while also hitting the online betting services.

Unless you are closely connected to these professional betting groups, your wagers are going to be made at the new point spread, or ``line'' -- the anticipated difference between the scores in a game. Should you follow the moving odds?

Statistically, you shouldn't. Al O'Donnell, author of ``Point Spread Playbook,'' has been collating NFL statistics for 29 years and has plotted line moves for the past decade.

``One school of thought is that line moves are based on informed opinion, or so-called smart money,'' he says.

``In isolated instances they may be right but last season the line moved three or more points only four times and in three of those cases you'd have lost betting at the adjusted line.''

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