SOURCE: Bloomberg

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Losing Bets

More crucially, these big line moves are a major loser for bettors over the years. O'Donnell says the point spread has moved 3 or more points 43 times in the last decade, and you'd have lost money by chasing it on 30 of those occasions.

So, in theory at least, betting against big line moves seems to be a good idea. But with fewer than five games per season to play on using that method, it is also worth keeping an eye on smaller line moves.

When I look at any movement in the point spread, I try to work out why it has changed. Sometimes it's obvious.

When a starting quarterback is injured and a first-season replacement is brought in, the line could move by as much as 7 points.

If it turns out that an ice storm is expected at the Green Bay Packers' Lambeau Field, I can understand why the line on the total points in the game might drop a couple of points.

If the Dallas Cowboys have won easily on the previous ``Monday Night Football,'' I will expect the public to bet them heavily and move the line.

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