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Sports
NFL Betting X-Factors
by Karl Yu, Winneronline
6 September, 2006

SPORTS

After a long offseason, a draft and more TO drama, the NFL regular season is finally upon us. Here are some betting cheat sheets you can use before you start placing your bets. Happy Week 1 everybody.

Thursday, September 7, 2006

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (Pick’em)

Opening Line: Pittsburgh -5

The Pittsburgh Steelers open at home and get to raise their Superbowl championship banner too. What more could an NFL team want? A healthy Ben Roethlisberger and Hines Ward perhaps?

Injuries saw the Superbowl champs drop from 5-point faves all the way down to a pick'em. Ben Roethlisberger will not play because he is healing from an appendectomy and Charlie Batch will be the one lining up behind center. Batch was 2-0 starting for the Steelers last year. Hines Ward is probable but how much will his hamstring hinder him?

Fred Beasley was expected to open holes for Ronnie Brown but was cut, leaving only Darian Barnes as the only FB on the roster and CB Travis Daniels was downgraded to doubtful. Daniels was one of two in the secondary who is familiar with Nick Saban’s defensive schemes with a lot of the secondary in their first year with the club.

Status Report

Pittsburgh: QB Ben Roethlisberger (Out), WR Hines Ward (Probable), TE Jerame Tuman (Doubtful)

Miami: CB Travis Daniels (Doubtful), RB Sammy Morris (Suspended)

Weather Forecast

Few Clouds and Light Winds, Low of 54º F.

Notes

Miami has paid out their last 7 times out of 10 on grass.

Since 2003, Pittsburgh is 14-12-1 against the number.

Sunday, September 10, 2006

Featured Matchup

Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants (Colts -3)

Opening Line: Indy -3½

The regular season NFL Sunday Night sked starts off with the brother of all battles. Peyton Manning is definitely a more accomplished QB than Eli, but the NY Giants QB is slowly rounding into form.

Although the Colts are the better team, their injury list has as many players as Bengals on the Cincy police blotter. Adam Vinatieri should play—listed as probable on the injury report—but how will his less than 100 percent planting foot react? WR and TE Brandon Stokley and Dallas Clark—second and third options for Peyton Manning—aren’t in top flight condition either.

The Giants gave their secondary an overhaul after a horrendous 2005, adding the likes of former Miami Pro Bowler Sam Madison, but will they be able to shutdown the elder Manning and his receivers?

Status Report

Indianapolis: FS Dexter Reid (Out), DT Corey Simon (Doubtful), OG Ryan Lilja, OT Charlie Johnson, CB Kelvin Hayden, LB Keith O’Neill, LB Rocky Boiman, DE Dwight Freeney, DT Montae Reagor, P Hunter Smith, DE Josh Thomas, CB Jason David, LB Rob Morris, LB Gilbert Gardner, LB Gary Brackett, SS Mike Doss, CB Nick Harper, TE Dallas Clark and WR Brandon Stokley are all questionable, K Adam Vinatieri (Probable).

New York Giants: RB Derrick Ward (Out), OT Luke Petitgout, C Shaun O’Hara, OG Rich Seubert, WR Sinorice Moss and LB LaVar Arrington are all probable.

Weather Forecast

Mix of sun and cloud, High of 75º F, Low of 49º F.

Notes

The numbers favor Peyton. The Colts are 9-2-1 when favored on the road and have paid out 8/10 when -7 or less.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (Panthers -5)

Opening Line: Carolina -4½

Chalk eaters might want to wait a minute before wagering on the Cats. All-world WR Steve Smith has been listed as questionable with a hamstring injury, meaning QB Jake Delhomme will be missing one of his favorite targets from last year. But the Panthers added Keyshawn Johnson in the offseason and he will be the go-to-guy in the interim. DeAngelo Williams should be impressive when he spells DeShaun Foster at tailback.

Atlanta has Mike Vick lining up behind center, which is always a dangerous thing for opposing defenses. Add Warrick Dunn, Alge Crumpler and new Falcons WR Ashley Lelie into the mix and the strong Carolina defense best stay on their toes. The Panthers ‘D’ should also beware of rookie RB Jerious Norwood. Norwood impressed in preseason action averaging 7.2 yards/carry.

Status Report

Atlanta: LB Edgerton Hartwell (Out), FB Fred McCrary (Questionable), CB Jason Webster (Probable)

Carolina: WR Steve Smith (Questionable), CB Ken Lucas (Questionable), DT Jordan Carstens (Questionable), LB Na’il Diggs (Questionable), LB Dan Morgan (Probable)

Weather Forecast

Mix of sun and clouds, light winds, High of 86º F, Low of 64º F

Notes

Carolina is 7-15 when getting chalk at home, but was 2-0 ATS vs. Atlanta last year.

Atlanta is amidst a 4-8-1 streak on natural turf when not getting love from the oddsmakers away from home.

(continued)

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