Well before we know it we are into week four. What a whirlwind and its time to slow things down just a bit. Kick back, take a breather, have a cappuccino and reflect on a few observations. Nothing earth shattering, but the coffee is good once I got through the bablet asking me whether I want decaf, goats milk topping and if a soup bowl is the right size. Hard to just find simple these days.

Viking Spin: You gotta believe that the Minnesota Vikings brain trust could jump into the weapons of mass destruction hunt and put a positive spin on things. For a number of years they have been touting the new improved Randy Moss. Their take is that he has put his ego aside and has developed into a true team leader. I bought into this last year and after their hot start I actually thought that they could represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Then in week nine they had a showdown with Green Bay on National TV. Huge game and again the preamble was how Randy turned the corner. He was emerging as the heart and soul of this team. But the camera doesn't lie. Pass routes weren't being run, lip dragging, refusing to block and the Vikes went into the toilet. Now the spinmeisters are at it again. But again the truth came out in his miked-up performance on Monday night against Philly. Constantly lobbying for the ball, whining incessantly into Culpeppers's ear. Same old, same old. With "leadership" like this, Minnesota just cannot be trusted against tough disciplined teams, particularly on the road.

Totals Tally: After all the speculation that the new pass interference emphasis would create a plethora of scoring and overs we find it not to be the case. After three weeks we find the unders to be carrying the day going 17-27-1 (before last Monday's game). The linesmakers have adjusted the numbers to fit the public moods setting higher than usual totals. I wouldn't fight this too much right yet but do feel that the overs will show up in weeks 5-10 as more squads find their rhythm and there is downward movements to the totals set.

The Slipping Favorite: Over the course of the season be wary when backing the favorite after winning but not covering the previous week in the chalk role. Backing the dog here has been quite profitable over the years with a winning percentage of close to 70%. Surprisingly two teams have fit this profile and both have covered-Atlanta in week two and Oakland last week. But it is worth monitoring.

The Early Body Clock Angle: This historical go against angle has gotten off to a rough start. West Coast teams that travel east and play the early (10:00 am their time) game generally suffer. However they are 4-0 so far but there are 18 more contests, barring any time changes. Certainly I expect to see this wake-up challenge to be more disruptive as the season progresses.

Quiet and Dangerous Injury: New York Jets have really looked solid in their first two starts. Way too early to jump up and down but it's certainly an optimistic outlook for this squad. However they've lost center Kevin Mahwae for a period of time with a broken right hand. Keep an eye on this. It is not a glamorous position but integral to any teams success. They make the offensive line calls, stop the bull rush and handle the ball on every play. There is more than one bettor out there who views this as the second most valuable position on a team as far as wagering goes.

The Buy Down: The linesmakers have done their job so far, producing some very sharp numbers. Without a doubt I think it is wise to bet all 3.5 favorites down to 3 should you be playing them. If you save just a single hundred-dollar play you have invested wisely and the $10.00 risk cost is pretty minimal. Pittsburgh/Oakland and Buffalo/Oakland are just two early examples so far where the buy down has kept the bankroll safe.

Miami Crime Scene: Nothing much to say except I'm all over them as soon as Wannstedt comes down of his acid trip and reinstates Jay Fiedler. Time to wipe the foam off the mouth. Breather is over. See you next week.

PAT'S PICKS: Last week 0-3     Season: 2-4-2

Last week: What a blood bath. Suffice to say that a 0-3 weekend makes for a restless week. Best not to dwell on it and move on. Although I must say that the Green Bay/Indy game was interesting. Announcers love these games….me, I prefer a little defense. But it was interesting in a head smashing, groaning sort of o-fer way.

Oakland at Houston

Oakland is heading into a very tough stretch. They've just knocked heads with Tampa Bay, never a walk in the park, travel to Houston for an early body clock game and look forward to Indianapolis and then Denver. One school of thought is that this is the one winnable game and they will be focused. Could be, but Houston can be tough at home and will be putting all their eggs in this one after losing to San Diego in their home opener. The Texans can run the ball well, eat the clock and it will be a raucous environment.

I'll take Houston.

New York Giants at Green Bay

The Giants are playing pretty decent ball but their last two wins have been against teams that are very limited in their passing attack. Neither Washington nor Cleveland posed much of an aerial attack that could expose their secondary. Regardless of Green Bay's deficiencies that may be present on defense this is a very go od offensive team. They are returning home after two straight losses and will be very ready. This is a play only if Brett Favre is a go.

I'll take Green Bay.

Atlanta at Carolina

Atlanta comes into this one on a five game win streak. They played poorly last week but got it done. The Falcons are showing great run defense and have dominated this series going 6-1-1 the past while. Certainly Carolina is a better team now than in years gone by but so too is Atlanta. I'm not sure that Carolina can contain Vick and the points offer value.

I'll take Atlanta with 3.5 or better.