This week I thought I'd look at some basic tips on trends and how to apply these to your handicapping.

Atmosphere - first thing you do is SHUT THE TV! Or your i-pod/CD player, whatever. Get a nice quiet atmosphere where you can work undisturbed. You'll get more accurate results this way AND it'll take less time to do so.

Tools - You'll need a notebook, pens and a data source. The source is the Winner's Edge workbook. No cheap plug there, I see all the football annuals and I happen to think W.E. has the best - it is informative, accurate, and has an easy to read/use format. You can either update the annual by handwriting in each week's results (scores and Ov/Un/ATS results) or you can just buy the weekly edition of Winner's Edge, which already has the updated info for you).

Brainstorm - this is the first step. It requires creative thinking if you are looking for new trends. Or just remember trends you may have seen elsewhere and consider ways to refine them or adjust them to increase profitability. Remember - no trend is profitable forever! Betting trends are like the scales of justice - they may tip one way or another but eventually they always even out. For example - one of the best known trends was "take the points with Monday night home dogs". This used to be profitable over a period of time. It is still profitable on any given Monday. But not overall - the lines have adjusted, the scales have balanced, and it is no longer a blind/automatic play every times it comes up. For training purposes in this column we will use another example. There was a time when it was profitable to play against teams after they played Tony D.'s Bucs the previous week. A likely reason why - the Bucs had a punishing defense and teams didn't recover as quickly in the six days between games. That play was good for a while, but now the scales have balanced, and its time has passed. But we can use it for a basis for researching today's teams and to see if we can find a similar spot to play.

I'm not going to do the numbers for you here, the idea is to get you thinking for yourself, get you to where you can find the thought processes to begin hunting for trends on your own. What you need to do for this example is look at today's defenses. Which D gives up the least amount of points? Which D gives up the least total yards? How do teams fare after playing Dungy's current club? Who is the most physical team to play, on both offense and defense?

Pittsburgh beats you up on defense and then rams it down your defenses throat with their offensive line and the Bus. They would be a good team to start with. Let's look at their schedule and see how teams they played fared the next week. In Week 1 Pit played Tennessee. In Week 2 we see Tennessee beat Baltimore. In Week 2 Pit played Houston, who had a bye in Week 3. Week 3 Pit played the Pats, then the Pats played the Chargers and got beat 41-17. Week 4 Pit had a bye. Week 5 Pit played the Chargers, who play Oakland this week.

So, what do we learn? "Teams after playing Pit are 1-1 the following week", which gives us - NOTHING!! But that's OK! You're hunting for buried treasure here and not every hole is going to produce gold! 'NOTHING' is what most trend hunts will come up with. In the example above we come up with nothing because we have a very small data sample. And sometimes you can use 2-3 years worth of data and still come up with no profitable trend to be found. THAT'S what makes it so worthwhile when you do come up with a trend with a high win %. You can keep a section in your notebook for "ATS records after being played" and keep track of each team and how teams fare the week after playing them.

YES, there's a little work involved, and it helps being organized and disciplined, but hard work and discipline are what usually determine who wins and who doesn't. Other suggestions you may want to research, or just to get you thinking of things to look for - how do teams do the week after winning Monday night? At HM? As Favs? Dogs? How do teams do after winning by 10 or >? RD's that win SU - how do they do the following week? If they are RD's again? If they are HM Favs?

For you puck heads I'll give you another example if you are looking to have some fun, do some stat work, and be rewarded with a winning trend (and it is VERY satisfying to uncover a trend for yourself, bet it, and watch it win!) In the NHL forum at www.everyedge.com we have a thread, posted by poster 'tackydrsrca'. He keeps us updated on a trend called "3rd in 4's", teams playing in their 3rd game in 4 nights. It is a profitable situation over the long haul playing against teams in this spot. It is based, obviously, on teams being tired in this situation. When broken down even further, as pointed out by another poster, it becomes even more profitable - if you just play teams who are favorites against 3rd in 4 teams. This info, record/stats included, is also in the forum.

Now you can take it a step further - for exercise purposes, profitability purposes, and, if you are so inclined -for social purposes (if you uncover numbers of value you can post them in tacky's thread and make yourself some internet buds to correspond with). Take the posted results for 3rd in 4's played thus far and look at the totals. How many Unders? Overs? When the total was 6? 6 1/2? How about team totals for each team? Do teams playing the 3rd in 4 teams go Over their team total a high % of time? I am not providing the numbers here because the purpose of this column was to get you thinking of ways to find profitable trends. But if you do, remember - sharing is nice.

This week's selection: The Packers are 4-0 SU their last four games off the bye week, including the last two years when they played Minnesota. The Vikes only managed three points last week. Throw out the Saints game (N.O. is by far the worst D in the league) and their per game avg. is 8.5! Apparently they can score on cruise ships but not on the field. Tice is about to be an ex-coach. In pro sports you have to be focused to win. Too many distractions and not enough talent in Minny. Take Green Bay and the 2 points. And if it goes to 2' by the weekend buy the hook to 3.