We've talked before about the range of emotions that gamers go through during the course of a season. It's dangerous to get too high or too low with the outcomes of our plays. Overconfidence can bring us down eventually, so too does anger. It is also damaging to fall into the morass of kicking yourself over a loss. How often have we said to ourselves, " how stupid could I be"? Some bettors can really beat themselves up over a poor play and it can have a negative effect on confidence levels for weeks to come, if not longer. And it can spill over into other aspects of ones life as well. Let's face it. We are all going to lose some plays. And some of those are going to be worse than others. I think it is best to analyze them to some degree, try not to repeat the obvious mistakes and then just move on. For instance losses can perhaps be divided into four categories:

1. Silly: We all make them and should try to avoid them. An example may be my picking Detroit as a dog against Philadelphia in week three. This pick may have been a good choice for some due to their handicapping pointing them in that direction. But it crossed into silly territory for me as I gave into a weak spot of mine, which is stubbornness. I was convinced that this would be a good play by early preseason. I thought the line should have been seven and when it came out considerably lighter I was not going to back away. Silly stubbornness, vowed not to be repeated.

2. Misguided: Sometimes we just get so focused on one side we neglect to handicap the other team. Another personal example was my taking New Orleans in week six as I was convinced that Minnesota was an overrated road favorite with poor leadership. Could be true and I'll stand by that assessment. However I was totally neglectful in assessing New Orleans, a team whose chemistry would make a grade school Chem teacher blush.

3. Unfortunate: Often times we've made a good sound choice only to have it fall in flames due to odd or unfortunate occurrences. Tampa Bay in St. Louis could be such an example. Backers saw them play about as well as could be expected. A couple of untimely turnovers, one resulting in a 100 yard score the other way, created a loss. Ram supporters were pleased but Buc bettors have to realize that that's just the way it goes sometimes.

4. Just Plain Bad Handicapping: Every so often you just have to chalk one up to this area. It's not an exact science, we are human and crap does happen. That said, most decent handicappers have very few of these occur as a stand-alone reason for a loss.

There could be more loss categories but I doubt it. In any event, unless you continually fall into the "silly" category there is very little reason to beat yourself up over a loss. I do think it is important to understand why the play lost, make a few adjustments and clean up the process. Then move on. The best of us are going to lose four out of ten plays. We are going to win a few on last second and fortunate situations and those we should not over-inflate either. My win with the Rams over Seattle a few weeks back did not create any real sense of joy or accomplishment. I saw the game. I knew what should have happened. The loss by Tampa had the same affect virtually. The season is full of bumps. Let's not create our own by kicking ourselves.

I have one play from this upcoming weekend's NFL games. Good luck.

Just a quick note. As I was muzzling along after the games on Sunday, a bit choked about the results, the World Series game was readying. Out came James Taylor, with guitar, to sing the anthem. Wasn't that the nicest (no other word for it) version we've ever heard? Perked me right up. Still only going with the one pick though… "I've seen Fire and I've seen Rain…."

New England at Pittsburgh

New England is travelling for the first time in a month after three straight high profile home games. While certainly a solid crew, I do see weaknesses that can be exploited, particularly by a team that has had the bye to prepare. They can be vulnerable to the run, especially by a squad that has a respectable passing thrust. Burress and Hines will cause problems for the defensive backs that rely on intimidation and schemes. Tall and powerful themselves they could have a big day against a team intent on stopping Staley. New England is intent on letting the other team make the killer mistake that they can capitalize on. Pittsburgh has been pretty sound in that area this season and I look for that to continue. However I do not expect to see Cowher have his team sit back and absorb the body blows. They will be the aggressor and have a solid scheme to control the clock and pound a defense that will be without Klecko. I see the streak ending here.

I'll take Pittsburgh with 3 or more.