The field has been set and the post positions drawn. The professional handicappers have set the morning line odds, and that is not a job I would have wanted. Even as I write this, I’m still debating who will cross the finish line first. Let’s take a look at the field first, with their designated post positions and Money Line odds.

1 Jazil 30-1

20 Flashy Bull 50-1

Brother Derek, as expected, has been set as the morning line favourite, with Barbaro and Lawyer Ron as co-second choices. Every other horse in the field is double digit betting odds. There is so much value in a race like this, if only we had a crystal ball.

The best place to start in trying to handicap a race like this is to try and determine how the race is going to set up, in regards to pace. There are a multitude of front-runners and “need to lead” types in the field, which will probably result in a suicidal pace upfront. By the time they get through 1 mile of the 1 ¼ mile race, all those horses who were battling on the lead will have already run their race, and this should set it up for someone to come from just off the pace, or perhaps even from the back of the pack.

Who will be out front at the start? Of the less-favoured entrants, Sinister Minister, Keyed Entry, Sharp Humour, Deputy Glitters and Sweetnorthernsaint all like to be in the lead. Sinister Minister is probably one of the fastest in the field, and the other jockeys are going to be very careful not to let him get away, as he did in the Bluegrass Stakes. All three of the favourites – Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron and Barbaro also prefer to run at the front of the pack or very close to it. This probable pace scenario only re-affirms my earlier statement of not betting the favourites. I’m not sure that we will end up with a 50-1 winner like Giacomo last year, coming from nowhere, but there is a lot of other value in the race, at what will be some nice prices I’m sure.

Who are the just off-the-pace horses? Bob and John, Point Determined and A.P. Warrior have all shown the ability to sit just off the frontrunners and make their move in the stretch. Of those three, I prefer the first two, as A.P. Warrior in recent races has seemed to lack that final kick to get the job done, and has not even been able to hold his position.

Who are the closers? Jazil, Steppenwolfer and Storm Treasure should all be putting in a big move in the last two furlongs of the race, especially if they have the pace to run at that I think they will.

Who do I like in the race? Who will I bet? Two very different and distinct questions. My sentimental choice is Lawyer Ron, I certainly think he has the talent and heart to win. But with a sprint champion as his daddy, I still have some questions as to his ability to go the full 1 ¼ miles. In addition, I am not entirely confident that his jockey can keep him off the pace, the horse just likes being on the lead too much. Having said that, he did use an off-the-pace style in winning the Rebel, and if John McKee can get him to relax and sit back, he will be a force to be reckoned with. He suffered the bad luck of drawing post position number 17, however he does have more than enough early speed to get a decent position out of the starting gate. He will have to contend with Brother Derek sitting directly outside of him, and resist the temptation to run with that one.

Given the fact that the horse I really like seems to have the odds stacked against him, I have decided to look for some value for my money. I was between two other horses – Point Determined and Bob and John. Both of them are trained by Bob Baffert and that factor can never be overlooked in a $2,000,000 race. He has shown the ability to have his horses ready and peaking at just the right time. I have decided on Point Determined as I think his best is yet to come, and I think the way the race sets up will suit his style perfectly. He is also the son of the great Point Given, who could not win the Kentucky Derby, but did win the other two legs of the Triple Crown, the Preakness and the Belmont. Point Determined finished 2nd to Brother Derek in the Santa Anita Handicap, and was beaten only three lengths. The added distance of the Derby can only help him. His race in the San Felipe (another 2nd) was outstanding. He had a troubled inside trip along the rail, and probably should have won the race. Look for him to be coming late in the stretch.

Just because anything can happen in a race like this, I would also play some exactors using a few different horses. For a $1 exactor, I would use #5 Point Determined, #7 Bob and John and #17 Lawyer Ron to win, with the following horses as my choices for second - #2 Steppenwolfer, #5 Point Determined, #7 Bob and John, #8 Barbaro, #17 Lawyer Ron and #19 Storm Treasure. The total cost of this would be $15, and that is about as much as I would want to spend betting a race like this.

Storm Treasure (#19) could be an interesting longshot in this race. He will go off at huge odds, has shown an ability to close ground in the late stages, and actually has one win at Churchill Downs already. I would throw him in any exactor or triactor I chose to bet.

The weather forecast for Louisville, Kentucky shows the possibility of rain today and tomorrow, but clear and breezy for Saturday. I don’t see a muddy track as being a factor, but of course the weather forecasters have been wrong before. Should the track turn up sloppy, I would certainly give Barbaro and Bob and John a little more consideration, as both have won in the mud before.

I am looking forward to this race probably more than any other in recent years. If you are lucky enough to pick the winner, or even an exactor, there is definitely money to be made. But there is going to be alot of luck involved. Whoever wins the Run for the Roses, the race promises to deliver all the heart-pumping excitement that the Kentucky Derby is known for.