Survivor 2 comes to an end tonight, and with only three contestants left, the odds of walking away with the $1 million prize have improved dramatically. But the odds didn't always favor the final three contestants.
Vegas oddsmakers were giving odds on who would win before the series even started. The weren't actually taking bets, however, because the show's outcome had already been decided. Their guess on who would be victorious? Both the Stardust and Sahara casinos picked Kel Gleason, the alleged beef jerky smuggler. Odds for the Army intelligence officer were 4-1 and 6-1, respectively.
They were a little off with that one. Kel was voted off on episode 2 of the show.
Their second choices were equally accurate. The Sahara chose prison guard Debb Eaton, giving 7-1 odds. She had the dubious distinction of being the first contestant to be voted off. Stardust chose Nick Brown at 5-1, and fared a little better with that guess. He lasted until episode 10.
Back in January when the show started, the Sahara manager was quoted as saying, "I evaluated their jobs, their education and backgrounds to try and determine who has the wit and personality to come out a winner." Perhaps that wasn't the best strategy.
Now, with the final outcome just hours away, who are the oddsmakers picking to win?
Before we get to that, however, here's how I see the whole thing coming together.
Everything is riding on the final immunity challenge, without a doubt. The person who wins immunity will make it to the final tribal council. But the immunity challenge itself may also affect the final vote. More on that in a moment.
Of the three remaining players - Colby, Tina, and Keith - Colby stands the best chance of winning immunity. He's been eating well lately after winning all the reward challenges. He also got some quality time with his mom, which undoubtedly bolstered his spirits (in a creepy kind of way).
Tina hasn't done particularly well in either the reward or immunity challenges, but she's fairly coordinated and speedy. And that gives her an edge over Keith, who has been pitiful.
Both will likely fall victim yet again to Colby in the immunity challenge, however, unless they get really lucky. But don't hold your breath.
So where does that leave us? The most likely outcome, barring any big upsets, will see Colby win immunity, and he and Tina will vote off Keith to make it to the final tribal council. And that's what the experts are predicting.
Caesars Las Vegas figures Colby has what it takes to walk away with all the marbles, giving 7-5 odds on the Texan. Not surprisingly, Tina comes in second with 9-5 odds, and Keith brings up the rear at 2-1.
But I have a feeling that Caesars hasn't accounted for the frustration factor. Colby has developed an annoying habit of winning the last several reward and immunity challenges, and that may come back to haunt him. The jury may actually resent him for his wins - especially the people who didn't get to eat or were voted off.
If that is the case, Tina's chance of winning the million bucks improves dramatically.
If Colby were smart, he'd dump Tina and bring Keith with him into the final round. There are too many people on that jury who ate mushy rice, and they aren't going to reward bad cooking with $1 million.
In the end, it all hinges on Colby winning immunity. I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens.
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