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Feature
NCAA Betting
14 March, 2006

FEATURE

It's March Madness…one of the best times of the year for NCAA basketball bettors and fans. In this article, we go through the brackets and see if we can find a solid underdog who can make it to the Sweet Sixteen, and cash some tickets for you.

We highlight four specific plays.

In the Oakland Region we have last year's giant-killer, Bucknell. The Patriot League champions are "not playing Kansas anymore," and are firmly entrenched as the #9 seed opening against the #8 Razorbacks of Arkansas on Friday. Arkansas opened as a 6 ½ point chalk, but the Bison were quickly bet down to +4 ½. Major conferences, like the SEC, have historically dominated "lesser" conferences.

Instead of playing last year's sweetheart, let's look region-by-region for the current Cinderellas to make it to the Sweet 16. Specifically, I'm looking for a 5 through 9 seed, from a major conference that can make it through the weekend.

Oakland Region

I'm flying with the Golden Eagles! I like Marquette (-2) to first take care of Alabama, and then sneak by a very good UCLA team on Saturday.

The Golden Eagles played extremely competitive ball over the past two months in the Big East, arguably the toughest conference in the country. While Marquette didn't manage a marquee upset during this period, their last two road games in hostile environments were lost by a combined 11 points at Pitt and Villanova. They are battle-tested, although not tournament tested, with senior Novak having the only NCAA experience. The Golden Eagles are a deep squad, with a lot of good shooters and up to a 10-man rotation for Coach Crean.

While a nice program with some talent, Alabama are "one and done" in my book, losing early in the SEC tournament, sporting a very mediocre 3-7 road record, and only 7 players seeing major playing time. I look for Coach Gottfried to build on this experience, as his sophomore-dominated team will be back next year.

Taking nothing away from UCLA and their well-deserved #2 seed, the Bruins' over-reliance on slowing down the game and getting good outside shooting from the outstanding backcourt tandem of Farmar and Afflalo, should come back to bite them. If either guard has an off night, Marquette will key on the other and push the tempo as much as possible. UCLA breezed through the end of their Pac-10 schedule and the conference tournament, and don't look to get much of a game from #16 Belmont. While the Bruins could beat the Golden Eagles, I look for them to lay at least 7 in the Round of 32 match-up, and I'll take every point I can get.

Atlanta Region

Apparently I'm a huge Big East fan and I didn't even know it! Seriously, in the "Duke" Region I've got my 'Eers pinned back, looking for #6 West Virginia to flick the switch and get back on track. After a rocky past month I look for Pittsnogle and Company to get back to basics and take care of Southern Illinois, laying the 4 points, and then handle #3 Iowa to wrap up their Sweet Sixteen ticket.

Usually I tend to shy away from 3-point shooting clubs in the Big Dance, such as the Mountaineers, due in large part to unfamiliar arenas with new sightlines and potentially tight rims. All that written, I like this senior-led squad to get through to the Sweet 16. My one concern, which Coach Beilein has been trying to address all season, is the lack of rebounding by West Virginia. In their second round ouster in the Big East tournament at the hands of Pitt, the Mountaineers seemed to watch helplessly as the Panthers grabbed one offensive rebound after another on their way to erasing a 7 point halftime deficit. West Virginia has to "play wide" and stay between their men and the basket to be successful.

The Missouri Valley Conference champion Salukis made I nice run in early March to win their tourney. As with Alabama, I think Southern Illinois have used up all their ammunition and will need a super-human effort from star Randal Falker to keep it close.

The Big 10 champion Iowa Hawkeyes are a whole different kettle of fish. I feel Iowa are a misplaced #3, with LSU stumbling their way out of that spot. While beating the Buckeyes in the Big 10 title game was a nice accomplishment, Iowa's dismal 4-7 road record, with only one of those wins against a greater than .500 team (lame-duck Mike Davis' Hoosier squad), I go back to the tougher conference in the Big East.

Minneapolis Region

Good things come in 3's, right? If so, I'll score my hat-trick selecting Georgetown as my third Big East team (outside of the top 4 seeds) to make it through the weekend by taking care of Northern Iowa on Friday and Ohio State on Sunday. I hope the Hoyas are still seething over the second half collapse to eventual conference champ Syracuse. I hope JT III has his troops going through their intricate offense until they can score in their sleep. Finally, I hope Georgetown can stay disciplined and out of foul trouble, or else their lack of depth will cost them.

The Northern Iowa Panthers received an at-large bid after losing to Southern Illinois in the MVC championship. The Panthers jumped in and out of the Top 25 a couple of times early on in the season, but late season losses dropped their ranking, conference standing, as well as their confidence. If Northern Iowa is even the least bit tight or nervous going into this contest, their lack of rebounding will quickly be exploited and they'll be done by halftime.

Coach Matta has his senior-dominated Ohio State team playing extremely well. The second half hiccup against Iowa in the Big Ten championship didn't cost them the #2 seed they earned this year. The Buckeyes version of the Villanova 4-guard offense doesn't match-up well with the strong inside game of the Hoyas. While Ohio State will try to pound the ball inside to Dials, the guards must hit a majority of their shots to keep Georgetown from sagging back and suffocating the Buckeye senior center. The Hoyas will also make Dials work on the defensive end with their constant scheming to get the ball inside. While the Big 10 was no slouch conference, I do like the Big East mid-range seeds to do some damage, including this dangerous Georgetown team.

Washington, D.C. Region

Although I wasn't impressed with the Pac-10 overall, I was impressed with the Washington Huskies. Specifically, I liked how the Huskies responded after being a preseason Top 5 team, suffering a bad early season conference stretch, and finishing with a nice last two months of the season. I like Washington to easily handle Utah State and then get by the Fightin' Illini in the Round of 32.

The Huskies lack of height shouldn't hurt them against either team. Regardless of their size, Washington actually led the Pac-10 in rebounding. The Huskies have decent depth and a ton of tournament experience, having "danced" three of the past four years. The only real lack of experience is freshman point guard Dentmon. Since he has run Coach Romar's up tempo offense all season, I like him to handle the pressure of the NCAAs and keep the Huskies playing a week from now.

The Utah State Aggies are no tournament stranger, either. Their second place WAC finish and OT championship game loss against Nevada earned them a well-deserved at-large bid. I feel the Aggies' lack of depth and rebounding do not match-up at all with the athletic Huskies, who will dictate the pace and wear out Utah State early with pressure defense.

There are a lot of things to like about Illinois…experience and tenacious defense just to mention two things. What I don't like are the way they finished the season, losing to Michigan State in the Big-10 tourney, and their first round opponent, Air Force. While most teams didn't finish with wins in their conference tournaments, the Illini lost an obvious revenge match, after winning handily in East Lansing just six days before. That revealed a lack of mental toughness which enhances their vulnerability. While Illinois can't decide who they play, the committee didn't do them any favors by laying a Fighting Falcon team in front of them that probably shouldn't be in the field. Air Force had a nice season record-wise, but playing in the Mountain West Conference, and feasting on a weak non-conference schedule, are not good credentials. This roll over opponent will not prepare Illinois for the speed and athleticism that the Huskies will bring come Saturday.

NCAA Plays:

Recap of plays:

Thursday, March 16th:
Washington -6 versus Utah State
Marquette -2 versus Alabama

Friday, March 17th:
Georgetown -4 versus Northern Iowa
West Virginia -4 versus Southern Illinois

Play on all four teams again over the weekend.

Good luck and remember, always wager within your means!

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