The opening weekend of the NCAA tournament was profitable, only losing one of the recommended plays in our column posted last week. Our only loser, Marquette, forgot there is a first half in every game, and never got over the hump against a solid Alabama squad. Our other three recommendations, West Virginia, Georgetown and Washington, all made it through to the Sweet 16, covering all six of their contests in the process.
This week we’re looking for a team from each region, other than the #1 seeds, to advance. While history says at least a couple of #1s make it to Indianapolis, let’s try and pull a few rabbits out of the hat.
Oakland Region
While it wasn’t Marquette that gave UCLA all they could handle, the Bruins did play as expected. While Farmar had a solid game, Afflalo didn’t come through until late in the second half, hitting a big 3 to keep UCLA in the lead, and also contributed some stifling defense. The lack of consistent outside shooting helped keep the Crimson Tide in it until the end. Now #3 Gonzaga meets the #2 Bruins in the bottom half of the bracket that has held true to seeded form.
The ‘Zags are probably the most denigrated #3 seed in quite some time. Just surf the ‘net and you’ll see a lot of people, pros and amateurs alike, taking their shots at Gonzaga and predicting their imminent demise. To their surprise, the ‘Zags are still alive and playing solid ball at both ends. Even an off game by POY candidate Morrison couldn’t get Mike Davis’ Indiana squad over the hump.
UCLA does not want to get into a back-and-forth transition game with most teams, although they can run when the time is right. The Bruins will likely concentrate on stopping Morrison, which gives us the biggest key to the game in my opinion…how the other Bulldogs step up and push the tempo. Gonzaga does not want to get into a halfcourt game where Coach Howland’s UCLA team is most comfortable. The ‘Zags must continue to push the pace, which also makes it difficult to double team and get the defensive match-ups the Bruins prefer. If Batista, Mallon and Knight continue to score when Morrison doesn’t, UCLA will be watching the rest of the tournament this weekend.
Memphis’ lack of a true point guard to run the offense and not turn the ball over could prove their undoing on Saturday. Whether it’s the ‘Zags pushing the tempo and forcing mistakes, or the Bruins methodically playing half court defense and forcing decisions, we like either team to make it to the Final Four rather than Memphis.
Recommended Plays: Gonzaga +4 versus UCLA on Thursday, March 23rd. On Saturday we will play the Gonzaga/UCLA winner against the #1 seed Memphis Tigers (assuming they end the great run Bradley has had so far).
Atlanta Region
While we rode West Virginia through the first two rounds, we don’t like their match-ups with a peaking Longhorn squad. Watching Texas methodically dominate NC State over the weekend, it was clear that this team can shoot 3’s with anyone, and rebound better than most. The Longhorns ability to play inside-outside and challenge every shot on the other end, make them a good choice in my estimation to end Duke’s tournament run.
What we like most about Texas in both the West Virginia and then Duke match-ups, is their athleticism and ferocity on the glass, which plays off both the Mountaineers and Blue Devils rebounding weaknesses. Although Penn was able to pack the middle and not let the Longhorns pull away until late, the Mountaineers can expect to do no better. In the last 10 minutes, when nerves are tight and legs are tired, West Virginia’s missed 3s will lead to long rebounds and easy lay-ups for the Longhorns.
Duke wins with offense. Texas can play defense. In Saturday’s game we look for Coach Barnes to have his troops pound it inside to get Shelden Williams on the bench early. While neither team is deep, both relying mainly on only seven players, Texas has more height on the bench. The ACC’s all-time leading scorer Reddick will have a lot to say in this game, as he gives opposing coaches nightmares with his uncanny ability to get all of his team mates involved. Duke freshmen McRoberts and Paulus are the key…if they can provide a third option Duke will have a chance to win. Texas needs their second round backcourt to show up, and not the one held scoreless by Penn in the opening round. It appears the Longhorns have exorcised their Big 12 Tournament “demons,” and will get the chance to get rid of one more on their way to the Final Four!
Recommended Plays: Texas -5.5 versus West Virginia on Thursday. On Saturday, we’ll play on the Longhorns again, hopefully getting a point or two (against Duke) or laying 3 or less if LSU makes it through. If West Virginia wins we will play against them on Saturday.
Minneapolis Region
Although the Ohio State version of the Villanova 4-guard offense didn’t match-up well with the strong inside game of Georgetown, the balanced attack of Florida certainly does. The Gators made it to Minneapolis with limited backcourt points, relying heavily on their big man Noah, who averaged over 16 points and 7 rebounds in tournament victories over South Alabama and UW-Milwaukee. Florida’s starting guards played below-par, and are due for getting back to their season averages of 17+ points combined. Georgetown will look to pound the ball inside and wear down the Gators. Florida held their first and second round opponents to a combined 41-of-116 (35.3 percent) from the field, so the Hoya’s strategy of trying for higher percentage shots should be sound. How well the Gators hit from outside and push the pace to keep Georgetown off balance will go a long way to determining the outcome. We like Florida to bring a balanced attack and tough defense and cover the three point chalk.
We look for Florida to meet #1 seed Villanova on Sunday, as the Wildcat’s front line can match BC's, and BC's guards are not close to 'Nova’s. This contest will be a huge contrast in styles…BC’s methodical offense with a big, physical frontline against the up-tempo style of the Wildcats' guards. As good as Villanova has been this season, there have been questions about how long a team that starts four guards can last in the NCAA Tournament. Against a very tall Arizona team, Coach Wright tried to stick with his four-guard lineup. However, early foul trouble and lack of rebounding forced ‘Nova to adjust and use a "standard" (aka taller) lineup for longer than in any other game this entire season. Freshman forward Cunningham played a career-high 31 minutes and grabbed nine rebounds. Fellow freshman Clark played 17 minutes. Sheridan, the usual lone bigman, also played well, scoring 16 points and grabbing four rebounds. Size shouldn't be a huge issue for Villanova in Friday night's game against BC. But if the Wildcats advance, they're going to have to deal with some significant height in a regional final against Florida or Georgetown, which should cause them fits. Recommended plays: Florida -3 versus Georgetown. On Sunday we’ll play against Villanova and on the Florida/Georgetown winner. Washington, D.C. Region
The Huskies win the D.C. regional! We know, not a big limb with the UConn/Washington winner facing the George Mason/Wichita State winner. In what promises to be the best game of the Sweet 16, (if not the tournament), this battle of the Huskies is a “can’t miss” game. As good as UW has played, it is an extremely tall order to get by a talented and experienced UConn team. The Washington Huskies continue to impress. We especially liked how the Huskies responded after blowing a double-digit lead at the end of the first half against Illinois, fighting back throughout the last 20 minutes and surviving a last second 3 attempt by Dee Brown. Although we do think UConn wins this bracket and advances to Indianapolis to win the National Championship over Texas, only UW has a chance at beating them this weekend.
The winner of George Mason-Wichita State re-match will have the chance to play in a game with a Final Four berth on the line. Coach Larranaga's George Mason team has the obvious advantage, having already knocked off Wichita State on February 18th in Wichita, and now playing in their own backyard. It's been a long time since a double digit seed made it this far. Although this is the feel-good game of the weekend, like most people we expect the glass slipper to fall off and the winner of this contest to lose to the UConn/UW winner. While not an official play, we look for the Shockers to get their revenge and beat the Patriots before bowing out to the Huskies.
Recommended Plays: Washington +6.5 on Friday against UConn. On Sunday, we’ll play the UConn/UW winner and lay the points against either GM or Wichita State.
Recap of Plays:
Thursday, March 23rd:
Gonzaga +4
Texas -5.5
Friday, March 24th:
Florida -3
Washington +6.5
Saturday, March 25th:
Play On Gonzaga/UCLA winner
Play On Texas or Against West Virginia
Sunday, March 26th:
Play On Florida/Georgetown winner
Play On UConn/Washington winner
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