Wow! For the first time in over 25 years, no #1 seed made it through to the Final Four. My predicted championship game of UConn and Texas didn’t even make it to Indianapolis. UConn barely escaped a talented UW squad on Friday (call the goaltend, ref!), and tempted fate once too often on Sunday falling to the #11 seed Patriots of George Mason University. The Longhorns couldn’t catch a tiger by the tail as the Bayou Bengals dominated OT to seal their invite to next weekend’s festivities.

A modest 5-3 on recommended plays to go with the 6-1 the opening weekend takes us to a solid 11-4 for the tourney. With all the #1s gone, it is anyone’s game. Sentimental favorite LSU and Cinderella GMU will get a lot of press. UCLA enjoyed Memphis suffering through their worst shooting game of the year. Great defense, horrible offense, or a combination of both…the end result is the same. Florida enjoyed the same lackluster effort from Villanova. With LSU and George Mason looking sharp and winning their games (rather than their opponents giving them the Ws), I expect the Tigers to be a small favorite (opened at pick) and the Patriots to be a relatively small underdog of 6 or less (no line yet).

UPDATE: On Monday, Don Best showed LSU -2 and Florida -5.5. The Gator line is going up, so get on this quick as it could hit 7 by game time.

Unlike the back-and-forth transition game with Gonzaga, UCLA managed to dictate the tempo against Memphis. The Tiger’s lack of a true point guard to run the offense and not turn the ball over finally proved their undoing on Saturday. The Bruins methodically played half court defense and forced bad shots and decisions. With Bill Walton cheering them on, the tradition-rich school from SoCal is ready to take aim at a record-extending 12th national championship. While many thought UCLA was out of gas after the miraculous comeback against Gonzaga, what they did against Memphis was impressive: 20 missed shots from five feet or closer, 15 missed 3-pointers, 18 turnovers, two shot clock violations and 31-percent shooting from the field. Coach Howland has his team believing that defense wins championships.

I have to admit, I didn’t give LSU any credit. I really didn’t think they had the defense or mental toughness to beat Duke, much less following that victory up by beating Texas. I was clearly wrong. In addition to Glen Davis, the Tigers have a shot blocker extraordinaire in Tyrus Thomas. The 1-2 punch was too much for the Longhorns, as Thomas finished with 21 points and 13 rebounds, and Davis added 26 points and 9 boards. I’m sure much will be said and written about how LSU is boosting the entire hurricane-ravaged Gulf Coast, but don’t let a “feel good” story cloud your judgment on how to bet the game. The key for each team is exactly opposite: UCLA wants a game in the 60s or lower; LSU wants 70s or higher. The Tigers were only 5-4 in games played in the 60s or lower in the regular season. I look for the Bruins to frustrate and slow down the Tiger attack while scoring just enough to win.

The one region I feel I had the best handle on was Minneapolis. Florida continues to play unremarkable defense. I say “unremarkable,” not because it is bad, but because every one is so enamored with UCLA’s defense, they haven’t dug into how well the Gators are stopping their tournament opponents…no one is remarking on it! Florida held their first and second round opponents to a combined 41-of-116 (35.3 percent) from the field, and improved on that great percentage over the past weekend: ‘Nova shot 18-73 (24.7%) following Georgetown’s 21-54 (38.9%) for a weekend total of 39-127 or just over 30 percent. Once is bad shooting, twice might be luck; but keeping four straight opponents to under a third of their shots made is plain good defense. The Gators continue to bring their balanced attack, being able to score from anywhere on the court and keeping foes off balance and unable to let their own defense fuel their offense.

The Washington D.C. regional was by far my worst. I expected a Huskies victory, and I was one of the many predicting a too-early demise for George Mason. The last time a mid-major conference team was in the Final Four, it was a guy named Bird leading Indiana State to the national final. Twenty-seven years later, George Mason has recaptured the magic. Yes, Indiana State lost to Magic and the Spartans. Eight is the highest number seed to win the national title, when Villanova did it in 1985. The last time a double-digit seed made it to the Final Four was LSU in 1986, and GMU are the first non-major conference team to do it. People, including me, have lost money betting Cinderella’s slipper would fall off before now. Watching the game on Sunday, I couldn’t shake the feeling that UConn gave it away, actually lost interest after the half, while the Patriots just kept plugging away, not taking no for an answer. This is one match up that Florida wants to push the pace, not let George Mason use their transition defense to fire up their offense. While the lack of depth has yet to hurt the Patriots, the inside-outside attack of Florida, combined with their stifling defense, should have the clock striking midnight.

In what looks to be shaping up as a defensive championship game, I like Florida to bang it inside all game and come away with the victory. Neither team will have much of a rest advantage, and both defenses have shone all tournament long. The under might be tempting, but at what I’m guessing will be around 125 I won’t touch that. Coach Donovan should be a small underdog, but has his team playing (in my estimation) the best basketball in the country right now. Donovan is not far removed from his days at Providence in a Final Four, and he will prep his players as well as he has all tourney. While UCLA’s Coach Howland is no stranger to big games, his team’s lack of offense and the Gators ability to go on a 10-0 run every game will be too hard to over come.

If George Mason does happen to make it to the championship game, I’ll put a quarter unit on the money line for good karma.

Recommended Plays:

Monday, April 3rd: Florida