The National Hockey League season is into its last six or seven games and the play-off picture is as clear as mud.
The Eastern Conference's eight teams have been decided, baring an unthinkable collapse by the New York Islanders. What remains is to settle on the top four seeds. Tampa Bay (Southeast) and Philadelphia (Atlantic) are in; a battle rages in the Northeast between Boston, Ottawa, and Toronto for the division crown. Boston has seven games remaining, Ottawa six, and Maple Leafs five.
The Bruins have two soft games against Carolina and Washington but the others are difficult: Ottawa, Toronto, Montreal, and New Jersey home and the Devils away. Bruins have played 17games (7-4-3-3) against this group producing 0.59 points/game. Boston can expect another three points from this group, meaning those two games against the Hurricanes and Capitals could prove vital.
Montreal and New Jersey have six games apiece. Both teams have three home/three away. Montreal has two softies - Buffalo twice. The Canadiens are 5-7-1 versus Boston, Ottawa, and Philadelphia. They can expect one point, perhaps two from those three games. They also have the Islanders. One point guarantees a post-season.
New Jersey has the Islanders and Rangers home, Tampa Bay and Atlanta away, plus a home-and-home with Boston to end the season. Before the All-Star break the Devils managed 0.63 points for each game; after the break 0.59. Doesn't sound like much but they lost any chance of winning the Atlantic's automatic seed. They may squeeze two points from Boston and Tampa Bay so games against the Islanders, Rangers, and Thrashers take on greater importance.
New York Islanders are in no-man's land: six points ahead of ninth-place Buffalo and eight adrift of seven-place New Jersey. Buffalo has four games with teams below them plus Toronto and Montreal. Isles should have no trouble holding off the Sabres.
Ottawa Senators have a dreadful schedule. Six games left, five on the road, one softie. They play Toronto home and away and Montreal, Tampa Bay, and Philadelphia on the road. Ottawa is 5-5-1-1 against Philly, Montreal, and Toronto. They could be in for a bleak finish.
Philly has five remaining games, three at home. They play a home and home with the Islanders, whom they have beaten three out of four games this season. Flyers have two wins over Montreal in three tries.
Tampa Bay is in clover. Five games remaining, five at home, three against softies, first in the East.
Toronto has five remaining, three on the road. Against Ottawa they are 2-1-0-1, the home and home with the Senators could be tight. The Leafs have played Boston five times (2-3) which means games against Atlanta and Buffalo could determine their final position.
Predicted order of finish is: Tampa, Philadelphia, Toronto, Boston, Ottawa, Montreal, New Jersey, and the Islanders.
The Western Conference
The Western Conference features one team with a lock on the first seed, teams on hot streaks, teams spinning their wheels, and the Vancouver Canucks. The eight play-off berths as of Wednesday morning are: Detroit, Colorado, San Jose, Dallas, Vancouver, Calgary, Nashville, and Edmonton. We' ll start with the easiest first.
Detroit Red Wings have six games remaining, three home, three away. There is a home and home with Colorado, home and away with Columbus, Minnesota home and St Louis away. Colorado could be dangerous although if the two games were played now and Detroit lost both they would remain up one point on the Avalanche. Wings and Avalanche have a history of bad blood and injuries could be the result.
Colorado has, in addition to Detroit, Los Angeles and Nashville home, Minnesota and Calgary on the road. The Avalanche are unremarkable at home (18-13-6-1, 43 points), outstanding on the road (20-7-7-4, 51 pts), and their divisional crown is safe from the collapsing Vancouver Canucks. Second seed would be nice and they are disputing that position with San Jose Sharks. Avalanche have split two games with Detroit and may garner another 8 points, finishing with 102.
San Jose's schedule is tricky: four home games, two away. They take on Calgary, Dallas, Vancouver, and Los Angeles at home, LA and Phoenix on the road. The Sharks haven't lost to LA this season (3-0-1) and could pick up another three from the Kings. Dallas has been a headache this season - Sharks are 1-3-1. Phoenix and Vancouver are likely wins. Their game against Calgary could determine whether Colorado or San Jose snags the number two seed.
Dallas Stars have been on a surge for weeks now. January 8th the Stars were out of the play-offs, mired in a tie for ninth with Nashville. They have since pulled their socks up and are assured of a play-off berth. They have four on the road and two at home remaining. They have split two games with the Oilers and should have little trouble with Minnesota, Chicago, and Vancouver. Overtaking San Jose is doubtful because winning the six would give them 103 points. San Jose has a potential of 106.
Vancouver Canucks are the NHL's version of Calamity Jane. Play-off success and Vancouver go together like road salt and my honeycombed rattle-trap. Right now the Canucks can't defeat anyone. The Bertuzzi crisis is having an effect a couple of ways: Line-mate Markus Naslund appears to be badly shaken and the integration of wingers Martin Rucinsky and Geoff Sanderson is taking longer than expected. Vancouver has four home games, two on the road. Tonight's game (March 24th) against Los Angeles is a litmus test - lose this game and loses can be expected against Dallas and Edmonton (home) and in San Jose.
Calgary Flames went nuts around Christmas time and that performance has kept them in a play-off position even though points are harder to come by. Flames are an odd bunch - they play decently defensively and are a shambles in the opposition's end of the ice. But they have the third best goaltender in the league (last week) and a winger tied for second (38) in goal scoring. The leader has 39. Flames have six games remaining; four at home (Phoenix, San Jose, Los Angeles, and Anaheim) and two on the road (LA and Phoenix). They are 2-1-1 against the Kings and Coyotes, which could be enough for them to overtake Vancouver.
Nashville Predators are a sentimental favourite for many. Their remaining games could be more perilous than they appear. They play just one play-off team at this moment - Colorado. Columbus and St Louis home and the Rangers away, plus a Chicago home-and-home rounds out the season. Pred's are not good against Chicago being 0-3-1 but are strong against Columbus (4-1). Their season may boil down to St Louis and that game is a crap shoot - they are 2-2-1 against the Blues.
Edmonton is on a high as a series of strong games catapulted then into the thick of the battle for eighth spot. The Oilers have had scoring and goaltender weakness for the entire season and now in March both have ceased to be problems. Even their reeking special teams have shown signs of life. Edmonton has six remaining, split evenly. At home they face Dallas, Los Angeles, and Phoenix; on the road St Louis, Dallas, and Vancouver. They've split two games with Dallas and the Blues will be a desperate team. They can no doubt count on two points from Phoenix and a draw against Vancouver if they've recovered. It all hinges on those three games against the Stars and St Louis.
This conference is providing plenty of entertainment; nearly every game results in a shuffling of the standings. With games against Chicago (2), Anaheim, and Minnesota, a post-season is not out of the question for St Louis.
The first round pairings will be:
Detroit vs St Louis
Colorado vs Edmonton
San Jose vs Vancouver
Dallas vs Calgary
You can visit Ron Steel at www.bookiekiller.com