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Early College Football Lines Not Likely To Hold Up
by Jeff Haney
13 July, 2007

SPORTS

SOURCE: Las Vegas Sun

Continued from page 1

Notre Dame, last year's No. 2-ranked team before the season, also had uneven results in its games of the year that had significant moves in the point spread.

The Irish opened a 15-point favorite on the Hilton's early line against Penn State, went off on game day as just an 8½-point favorite, and then easily covered both of those numbers in a 41-17 victory.

The line move in Notre Dame's game against UCLA was more accurate, as the Irish opened at -22, closed at -12½ and won by only 3 points.

Against Air Force, however, the Irish opened at -16½, closed at -10 and covered both numbers in a 39-17 victory.

The trend swung back again in Notre Dame's regular-season finale, when the Irish went from +2 to +8½ before losing to Southern Cal by 20 points.

Good luck finding any pattern there.

It's difficult enough to analyze a point spread on the week of a particular game, let alone several months beforehand.

Bettors would do well to keep that in mind when betting this season's college games of the year, including the 30-plus already available at the Golden Nugget and the roughly 80 expected to be posted at the Hilton this month.

In a sampling of games on the Golden Nugget's board involving top preseason contenders, USC is favored by 12 against Nebraska, by 14 against Notre Dame and by 9½ against Cal. Defending champion Florida is favored by 6 in a rivalry game against Tennessee and by 5½ against Florida State, but is an underdog of about a touchdown at LSU.

In a couple of key Big Ten matchups, Michigan—at 8-1 one of the preseason favorites to win the national championship—is a 6-point favorite against Ohio State and a small underdog at Wisconsin.

Page 1, 2

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