Strategy Skill vs Chance by Max Drayman, WINNERonline Updated 22 May 2003
As all casino players know,
there are two kinds of games. You might divide them into "the ones I like" vs
"the ones I don't". Or maybe it's a mood thing: "sometimes I like this game
and sometimes I like that one". In any case, the world of casino gambling -- online,
land based, or whatever -- divides itself right down the middle: there are games
of skill and there are games of chance.
Games
of chance
The traditional games of
chance are Baccarat, Craps, Roulette and Slots. Casino newcomers like Sic
Bo, Lotto, Keno and Bingo are expanding the options. Whatever the game, there
are two basic rules to every game of chance. The first is that the house always
has an advantage, however small. And the second is that the player's role is
to predict the future.
House edge is what you
play against when you play a game of chance. Some games, like Craps, let you
shave that edge pretty thin if you know what you're doing. Others, like Baccarat,
specialize in simplifying all decision making and leaving the outcome purely
to chance. Each game is different, of course, but it's ever true that your position
is improved by knowing your game. Take Baccarat for instance. You might think
that bets on player, banker or tie would all be about even. Not so. Tie bets
give the house a killer 14% advantage, whereas the player and banker bets drop
that edge to less than 2%. Smart bets do not go on Tie.
As to predictions, some
games let you use your judgement in making your predictions, while others leave
it to Lady Luck to decide all. For example, in Craps you predict the next number
up on the dice and bet accordingly. In Baccarat you simply predict who is going
to get the winning hand and wait for the results.
It's an unfortunate fact,
from the player's point of view, but games of chance are typically riddled with
sucker bets. For instance, in Craps a Don't Pass leaves the house with a modest
1.4% edge. A Big 6/Big 8 gives the house a 9.1% edge. And an Any 7 gives the
house a 16.7% edge. Your choice, but the Craps table is riddled with bad places
to put good money and any way you cut it that's a Sucker bet. Again, smart players
learn their game and know where the Sucker traps are. (Sucker bets deserve an
article of their own but we'll leave that for a later date.)
Games
of skill
Blackjack and the various
forms of Poker are the traditional games of skill. Video and Pai Go Poker expand
the choices, but are simply variations on the theme. The basic rule of thumb
in a game of skill is you pay to play and then adjust your bets once you see
what you've got. Generally speaking, the better you know the game, the better
your chances of winning. Winning at these games often comes down to mathematical
skills and memorizing, techniques which help you reduce and even eliminate the
house edge.
The biggest house edge
in games of skill is players who don't have the skill. Guesswork and predictions
are a lot easier to come by than advanced memorization and the house is betting
that you'll take the easy way out. That puts your dollars in their pocket. But
if you know your game inside and out -- in other words you've acquired the skill -- the
house edge can be dramatically reduced. Smart players face a house edge of 1%
or less versus the double-digit odds that guesswork can leave you facing.
And this gives us the line
that separates the games of skill from the rest: if you can create a single
situation where the odds favor you and not the house, it's a game of skill.
Having the skill can give you the edge and that will never happen in a game
of chance.
The bottom line
As with all statements
that begin with "there are two kinds of ..." the exceptions start popping into
your mind immediately. Craps, for example, is a game of chance where a player's
skill can dramatically reduce the house's edge. Deuces Wild, on the other hand,
is a game of skill with a healthy amount of chance involved. All this is true,
but the basic rules still apply. A savvy player in a skill game can reduce the
house edge to very near zero, and once the hand is dealt can usually turn the
odds in their favor. In games of chance that isn't possible.
On the other hand, the
games of skill aren't particularly exciting to watch. Nobody but a poker fan
gets a buzz off the poker table. Craps, the king of the chance games, can be
a VERY stimulating place to hang out. Whatever your game, learn it, find the
ways to trim the house's edge, and enjoy.