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Sports
NFL Wildcard/College Bowl Picks
by Ben Burns
5 January, 2006

SPORTS

The NFL postseason is generally a really profitable time of year for me. I'll look to keep the positive momentum going with a playoff pick from this weekend's card. I've also added a selection from the International Bowl, played at the Rogers Center in Toronto.

Wild-Card Play

NY Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

These teams split a pair of meetings this season. Back in September, the Giants upset the Eagles 30-24, at Philadelphia. Three weeks ago, the Eagles returned the favor, traveling to New York (as six point underdogs) and earning a 36-24 victory.

Those high-scoring results have helped provide us with solid value on the UNDER as this week's over/under line is higher than either of the regular season meetings. I feel that it has become too high.

Looking back at the past five years, we find that the Eagles have played eight home games after New Year's Day. While the UNDER was only a mildly profitable 5-3, it is worth mentioning that the majority of the over/under lines were significantly lower than this week's line. A closer look shows that ALL eight of those games produced 48 combined points or less and that they averaged a mere 35.4 points.

The Eagles have seen the UNDER go 15-6 (4-2 this season) when listed as home favorites of -3.5 to -9.5 points. They have also four of five games dip below the number when playing a home game with a total ranging from 45.5 to 49.

Meanwhile, during the same stretch, the Giants have seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 8-1 when playing a road game with a total in the same range. Look for the final combined score to be lower than most are expecting as the UNDER improves to 7-2 the last nine times that the Giants were road underdogs of 3.5 to 7 points.

Play on the UNDER.

NCAA Bowl Play

Western Michigan Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bearcats

The inaugural International Bowl figures to be relatively low-scoring with neither team possessing an explosive offense.

Both teams run the ball frequently and both rely on their defense to keep them in the game. Both defenses allowed less than 20 points per game and both were particularly dominant against the run.

The Bearcats allowed opponents to rush for just 106 yards. The Broncos were even stingier against the run, allowing a mere 71.9 rushing yards per game. The Bearcats are currently favored by 7 ½ points.

That’s worth mentioning as we find the UNDER at 15-5 the last 20 times that Cincinnati was laying points, including a 3-1 mark this season. Meanwhile, the Broncos have seen the UNDER go 11-3 the last 14 times that they were listed as underdogs. I’m expecting another defensive battle with the UNDER improving to 20-5 the last 25 times that the Bearcats ventured outside their conference.

Play on the UNDER.

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