feature Wildcard Weekend by Ben Burns 03 January, 2006
The NFL playoffs have arrived and 'Wildcard Weekend' has presented us with four interesting matchups. I've begun this week's column by briefly looking back at what happened in the opening round of last year's playoffs. That's followed by a closer look at this week's big games.
2005 Wildcard Review
History often repeats itself. Therefore, I thought it may be beneficial to recap last year's opening round games. You'll notice that the underdogs won three of the four games both 'straight-up' and 'against the spread'. It's also worth noting that all three of those games finished below the number. The lone game in which the favorite covered, easily flew above the total.
Jets at Chargers
The Chargers entered the game with a ton of momentum and were a popular pick. The Jets, listed as seven-point underdogs, showed that the regular season doesn't necessarily mean much come playoff time though, as they scored a 20-17 upset victory. The game finished 'under' the total of 43 1/2.
Broncos at Colts
Nothing was going to stop the Colts, a 9 1/2 point favorite, from a date with the Patriots at Foxboro. They crushed the Broncos by a 51-24 margin with the final combined score easily finishing 'over' the high 52 1/2 total.
Rams at Seahawks
The Rams were getting 3 1/2 points but that didn't stop them from knocking off the Seahawks for the third time of the season. The game snuck below the number, which was listed at a high 51.
Vikings at Packers
Green Bay won both regular season meetings. Playing at Lambeau the Packers were listed as six-point favorites. The Vikings ignored the oddsmakers though and defeated their hosts by two touchdowns, 31-17. The game also managed to stay beneath the inflated total of 52 1/2.
2006 Wildcard Previews
Last year, all four games featured teams which were favored by greater than three points. This season's games are expected to be closer, as three of the four favorites are 'laying' a field goal or less. The games are also expected to be lower-scoring, as the over/under lines are significantly less than they were last season. Last year's lines averaged 50 points. This season's totals average just 41 points.
Redskins at Bucs
Current Line: Tampa -2.5, Total: 37
Both the Bucs and the Redskins enter the postseason on a roll. Tampa Bay won it's final two games and finished the season at 11-5 SU and 8-8 ATS. Washington won it's final five games to finish with a 10-6 SU and ATS record. While the Bucs won six of eight home games the Redskins split their eight road games. These teams faced each other here in Week 10. It was a wild affair which the Bucs won 36-35 after successfully converting a two-point conversion in the final minute.
Jaguars at Patriots
Current Line: New England -7.5, Total: 37
Although they would never admit it, the Patriots didn't appear too interested in defeating Miami last week. By losing that game they guaranteed that they would host Jacksonville this week, instead of Pittsburgh. The Jaguars have been playing without starting quarterback Byron Leftwich but still enter the playoffs having won three straight games and eight of their past nine. That streak brought he Jaguars' final regular season numbers to 12-4 SU and 9-5-2 ATS. They also performed well on the road, winning six of eight games, both SU and ATS. The Patriots actually finished with a worse overall record, 10-6 SU and 8-8 ATS, but have home-field-advantage based on having won the AFC East. The defending champions won five of eight games at home but only managed to cover the number in three of those games. Prior to the Miami loss, the Patriots had won four straight games. These teams last faced each other in December of 2003. The Patriots won that game, played here at Foxboro, by a score of 27-13.
Panthers at Giants
Current Line: New York -2.5, Total: 43 1/2
Both teams finished with identical 11-5 records. The Giants were better against the number, however, going 10-5-1 compared to the Panthers' 9-7 mark. Both teams won their final game of the season after having lost the previous week. The Giants won eight of nine games at home, going 7-2 ATS. The Panthers won six of eight on the road, going 5-3 ATS. The Giants were a profitable 9-3 ATS when listed as favorites. However, the Panthers were 2-0 ATS when getting points and are 16-3 ATS as underdogs the past three seasons. These teams last faced each other in December of 2003. That game, played at New York, was won by the Panthers by a score of 37-24.
Steelers at Bengals
Line: Pittsburgh -3, Total: 46
These teams are seemingly going in opposite directions. The Steelers closed out the regular season with four straight double-digit victories. The Bengals, on the other hand, lost their final two games by a combined score of 74-30. The bitter division rivals will hook up for the third time this season. The Steelers won here at Cincinnati, in late October, by a score of 27-13. The Bengals returned the favor six weeks later, traveling to Pittsburgh and delivering a 38-31 upset. The Steelers finished the regular season with a record of 11-5 and were 6-2, both SU and ATS, on the road. The Bengals were also 11-5 for the season but were just 5-3 SU and 2-6 ATS at home.
This info was provided by www.benburnsconsulting.com
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