The conference championship games last week followed patterns set over the past dozen or so games. While many would/could argue mere coincidence, we will explore these patterns and see what they foretell for Super Bowl XL. I’ll leave it up to you to decide whether or not there are cosmic forces acting upon our greatest annual spectator event, but I do find these “fun facts” quite amusing. And sometimes profitable…
The past dozen AFC title games (prior to last Sunday) provided alternating over/unders, as well as 3 favorites, then 3 dogs, and the last 3 favorites. Using this simplistic pattern, it predicted the AFC title game underdog was due, and it should be a shoot-out based on last year’s under. Both held true to form with the Steelers dominating a high-scoring affair in Denver.
On the NFC side, again before this year’s game, we saw 6 favorites covering, then 5 dogs, ending last year with the favored Eagles covering. This suggested the NFC dog had had his day, so the favorite Seahawks should cover. There was not a long-term pattern on the total, but the past 4 years alternating overs and unders would suggested an over. Again, both held true.
By now you’ve either A. stopped reading; or B. asked the obvious question: what are the Super Bowl patterns? Well, the “Squares Delight” most likely clued you in to the favorite/over combo. The first total wasn’t available until 1982 when the Forty Niners beat the Bengals. Coincidentally, that game fell right on the posted 47, with San Fran winning 26-21. Since that inaugural push, we’ve seen 15 overs and 8 unders in the subsequent 23 Super Bowls. That 65% clip strongly suggests an over all by itself. Looking for patterns, we see there has never been two consecutive unders in the relatively short history of Super Bowl totals. With last year’s game sneaking under the 46.5 total, 24-21, we are set for an over in Detroit.
Regarding the side, in the previous 39 Super Bowls, the favorite is 19-17-3. Using the same sample as we had to for the over/under, we have a dead heat with the favorites going 11-11-2. Still no real pattern. The underdog has covered the last four Super Bowls. No favorite or dog has covered more than four consecutive times, going all the way back to Lombardi’s Packers. So we have the favorite covering at Ford Field.
Have I got a proposition for you…
There are dozens of various proposition bets for every Super Bowl. It is very easy to have a few adult beverages and play too much on too many props. Yes, I write from experience! While props can be fun for action, it is never fun to lose a big chunk of change before the Rolling Stones get wheeled on stage for the halftime spectacular! If you normally bet $25 to $100 a game during the regular season, don't go nuts and bet 10 times your normal wager. Remember, all those $5 prop bets add up quickly. The Super Bowl is fun to watch, and fun to bet on, but betting wise it's not that great of an opportunity to find an edge. The big juice props are high for a reason, but just like betting baseball, one big favorite going down in flames is all it takes.
Here is a small sampling of props found at various offshore sports books around the web:
- Player to score the game’s first TD?
- Will there be a score in the final 2 minutes of the first half?
- Will either team score three unanswered times?
- First score of the game will be a TD or FG/Safety?
- Team to have most 1st downs?
- Team to have longest field goal?
- The longest field goal made in the game will be over/under 44 ½ yards
- The shortest field goal made in the game will be over/under 25 ½ yards
- Individual Player Props such as yards rushing and yards passing (over/under a certain number)
- Player vs Player props, e.g. Alexander vs Parker rushing yards, who will have more?
- 1st offensive lineman to be called for a holding penalty?
- Team to score first?
- Team to score last?
- Total lost fumbles made by both teams?
- Team to punt first?
- Team to commit first turnover?
- Winning margin of victory will be: 1 to 3 points, 4 to 6 points, 7 to 10 points, 11 to 13 points, - 14 to 17 points, 18 to 21 points, 22 or more points
- Which half will more points be scored (OT is included for the second half)?
- Team to commit more penalties?
My personal favorites, coin toss props:
Will the coin land heads or tails?
What team will win the coin toss?
This is just a small sampling of the many props available at virtually every cyber and brick & mortar sportsbook. If you read many sports betting forums, you’ll see “locks,” and “guarantees” on many prop bets based on anything from physics to Aunt Martha’s arthritic toe. My advice is to set a firm budget for your props and stick to it. If you want to bet more, reduce the amount per prop and stick to your limit. Have fun, bet within your means, and have a great time with family and friends.
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