Line: -3
Over/Under: 43 1/2

Quick, name the only other NFL team that went 8-0 at home? Yep, the Broncos. The other marked similarity to the Seahawks is a seemingly unstoppable running game. While a lot of the talk is focusing on New England 's remarkable 10-0 playoff run, how the defending champs are peaking at the right time, and that the Patriots had the NFL's best run defense over the second half of the season, I must borrow a Corso-ism and say “Not so fast my friend.” First, let's look at some numbers:

- Denver was 8-0 straight up, and 5-2-1 against the spread at home this year.

- New England was 5-3 straight up and 5-3 against the spread on the road.

- Denver had a record of 3 overs and 5 unders at home, while the Patriots produced 6 overs and 2 unders in their road starts.

- Denver averaged 170.5 yards per game rushing at home.

- New England gave up an average of 90 yards per game on the road.

- Turnover Margin – Denver was +20 (Overall), +12 at Home, while the Patriots were -6 (Overall), -5 on the road.

New England gave up 68.6 rushing ypg over their last 8 games. Digging deeper, we see that the Patriots only played 3 road games in the second half, allowing 112, 14 and 40 yards respectively to #4 KC, #20 Buffalo , and #31 NYJ. While the New England “D” is playing with confidence, OTR at Mile High is a whole different kettle of fish. A lot of handicappers will look to the Week 6 game these two played in Denver , where the Broncos ran for 178 yards and built a 14 point 4 th quarter lead, only to hold off a furious Patriot rally. The Broncos consistently pounded it at everyone at home, maximizing Plummer's effectiveness at avoiding the rush, letting receivers come open, and not allowing defensive coordinators to stack the box. Only twice did the Broncos rush for less than 100 yards at home, getting 98 against the NFL-best Chargers and 96 against the #9 Ravens. And the #2 ranked Bronco rush defense should give the anemic Patriot running game fits all day.

In this game, I will play the “Over” in the second half for one unit , regardless of the number. My rationale is that both teams will start tentatively, with Denver running it and New England trying to run it. By the second half I expect both teams to be moving it… Denver with running success setting up passing success, and New England with no running game being forced to throw. Which might not be such a bad thing for Pats fans, as Denver 's pass rush has been weak this year and they were #29 against the pass.

If it is a low scoring first half, 17 total points or less, I'll play 2 units on the second half over . In all 8 of New England's road games this year, 20 is the lowest number of combined points scored (twice), with the average at just over 25. With a low scoring first half and some luck, a 21 hung on the second half total would be ideal.

One of the big intangibles is how Plummer handles all the media pressure to win in the playoffs and get out of Elway's shadow. I don't think any future Denver QB will ever be out of John's shadow, but a solid performance this Saturday will calm down the natives (at least for another week).

I feel the value is with the #2 seed Broncos at home laying a FG or less.

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