Line : Broncos -3 ½

Over/Under : 41

Forget Dorothy, Bill Cowher is happy to have his Steelers on the road. Since '94 Pittsburgh has hosted four AFC title games, losing three of those contests. During that same time period, AFC title game hosts have gone a dismal 5-6 SU and 6-5 ATS. The Denver crowd cheering on Pittsburgh this past Sunday was understandable, as the RCA Dome ended the Broncos last two postseason forays at the hands (hooves?) of the Colts by a combined score of 34-90. While those numbers are fun for barstool smack-talk, neither team is the same as the past unsuccessful versions. The entire free world keeps waiting on Jake to revert to his old self. No one thinks a team can win three straight on the road to get to the Super Bowl. I don't see Plummer regressing, and in our era of free-agent parity, the home field advantage isn't what it used to be.

As written last week, the Broncos consistently pounded it at everyone at home which maximized Plummer's effectiveness at avoiding the rush. This held true in the divisional game vs. New England . While the yards per carry was only 3.0, Denver kept their commitment to the run by carrying it 32 times for 96 yards. As the game was still close before Bailey's almost TD at the end of the 3 rd Quarter, this wasn't running out the clock, but a “We will wear you down and play smash-mouth football.” Hey, the Steelers also resemble that remark! Pittsburgh ran the ball 42 times for 112 yards against the Colts. It is no secret what both these teams will try to do: establish the run to set up the play action.

While I like Big Ben's previous big-game experience, I don't like the Steelers inability to take care of the ball when facing a ball-hawking defense like the Broncos. Although Roethlisberger is a very good pocket passer, with just enough mobility to avoid the rush, his passes while on the move are suspect. On the other hand, while Jake is probably the most accurate passer while on the run, the Steeler “D” will keep their lanes and make Plummer stay in the pocket. The forecast calls for snow on Friday and seasonal high-30s/low 40s for the weekend, so weather should not be a factor. There are no significant new injuries, so both teams will be healthy.

I expect a “thrust and parry” approach from Shanny and Bill that will result in a low scoring first quarter. All indications are an under with the teams a combined 5-14 Over/Unders, but I will take a wait and see approach and look to make a second half play.

One unit on Under 7 in the First Quarter.

Prediction: Denver 17 Pittsburgh 13.

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