Opened Bears -3/31’, currently -3 Even/30’

As we wrote in our Pittsburgh/Indy write-up, 3 NFL teams had a better straight up winning percentage on the road (OTR) than at home…the Steelers, Bengals, and Panthers all were 5-3 at home and 6-2 OTR. The Panthers could be the trendy dog pick this weekend, as they are:

1. Great on the road
2. Playoff tested
3. Disciplined
4. A defense that can turn an offense one-dimensional

Add to that the complete dismantling of the Giants at East Rutherford, and it’s easy to see why the betting public has jumped on Carolina enough to get Da’ Bears to even laying a FG.

The Panther’s NFL 3 rd best TO margin of +16 regular season +5 more last week against the Giants, is very impressive…until you look at all their road games individually. Carolina was +4 in three games: @ Tampa, @ New Orleans, and @ Atlanta. I could argue that the Saints in Week 15 and the Falcons in Week 16 had both given up, but it’s a moot point. I could also argue Carolina peaked at the right time and rightly steamrolled inferior teams, as they also did to the Giants. After the first couple weeks of the season, the Bears neither took the ball away, nor gave it away. The “mo” is clearly with the visitor once again, as the Panthers have enjoyed a +13 TO margin over their past 3 road games.

What is clear, and evidenced by the very low total, is that both teams will try and run the ball. While Carolina averaged a respectable 104 ypg on the road, the numbers are skewed. The Panthers didn’t hit triple digits rushing until Week 12 @ Buffalo, but never looked back. They ran up 161 yards @ NO, 229 yards @ Atlanta and 223 yards last weekend. While Carolina’s rushing yardage against them on the road was an outstanding 58, again this was skewed by those previously mentioned late-season contests. The Bears, much like the #1 seed Seahawks, ran on everyone. Only once did they fail to hit the century mark rushing at home way back in a Week 5 blowout of the Vikings. Chicago can be run on as well, so Foster/Goings and Thomas Jones will earn their money this weekend.

While I could never bet an under this low (14-14 and you’re screwed with the overtime FG), the appeal is obvious. I’m playing Over 15’ for the first half, hoping Urlacher and Co. run one back for a TD.

My prediction: 20-13 Chicago, with a 10-6 halftime score.

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