What 3 NFL teams had a better straight up winning percentage on the road (OTR) than at home? Since we’re looking at the Steeler game, that’s a given. The Bengals and Panthers also sported identical records: 5-3 at home and 6-2 OTR. With Cincinnati falling to the now 7-2 Steelers, that leaves them and the Panthers, also playing today at Chicago. Back to the game at hand:

The Steelers are 7-2 straight up on the road this season (after win in Cincinnati last week), and sport a 7-2 against the spread mark as well. The Colts have a 3-5 against the spread mark at home this season.

Pittsburgh has produced 2 overs and 7 unders in their nine road games, while the Colts have 2 overs and 6 unders at home.

Boy, that under sure seems to be screa ming at us, huh? Steelers riding The Bus, keeping the potent Colt offense off the field, not making Ben win the game which should limit his mistakes? Indy’s NFL 3rd Best yardage offense couldn’t seem to rack up the points like they did last year, although at their mid-season peak they did score 45, 31, 26, and 35 before hitting cruise control after losing to San Diego. What I find remarkable is the Indy defense at home allowing less than 2 touchdowns.

We’ve all heard “Defense wins championships,” but I feel the Steelers have to score to win this one and get to the AFC championship game. Conventional wisdom says Cowher doesn’t want to get into a shoot-out with Dungy, but I think that just keeps the score respectable (aka within 9 1/2 points!). The Steelers are only guaranteed one thing—they won’t play another home game this season. They must open up the offense and score. In addition, they must gamble on defense and pick their poison…Edgerrin or Marvin. The gambling defense should lead to scores from one of the teams, and I don’t care which. Although the Steelers should be able to run the ball, I don’t think Pittsburgh can afford to take their time and hope to grind out a low scoring affair, regardless of what the talking heads on ESPN are saying. Pittsburgh, in my humble opinion, must set up Ben with the run and then hit the big score. The Steelers are confident and capable road warriors, and can’t win without scoring.

Some may think the Colts will be rusty versus rested after the bye, and limited playing time for the starters in the last 3 weeks. Peyton is famous (notorious?) for pitching and catching with his receivers, something that should keep their ti ming on during the layoff. Indy will do their best to get off to a fast start so they can run a fresh James in the second half. I think the Colts will start with some interesting formations, like splitting out Edge or putting the TE in the slot, to try and confuse the Steeler zones and keep Pittsburgh in their stock 3-4.

I’m looking for scoring early and often, and taking Over 24/Even in the first half.

My prediction: Colts 31-21

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