Squares Delight
Pittsburgh Steelers versus the Seattle Seahawks
Line: Pittsburgh –4 Over/Under: 47
It appears the Road Warrior Steelers are no longer wearing the “Us Against the World” moniker. Now the Seahawks are in that role, as pundits and public alike are all over the favorite Pittsburgh. Although the total has held steady at 47, expect late money on the over as the public makes their last frantic bets. Favorite + Over = Squares Delight!
Pittsburgh has numerous weapons that can beat you in many ways. While Big Ben has no problem going long, his forte is working the middle, especially against zones…going over the first coverage and in front of the deep help. The Steelers spread the field early and often with multiple receiver sets, and a lot of shifting and movement of backs and wide outs. All of this allows Roethlisberger an early read on the coverage. Watching this post season, Pittsburgh has picked apart the top three AFC seeds in this fashion. And did I forget to mention, they can give you a lot of looks in the running game, as well? The Steelers are good at playing up their smash-mouth reputation, then using two-back sets to pull up the safeties. While Parker and Bettis will get their carries, look for Ben to keep dinking and dunking until the bomb opens up. I see the Seahawk defenders quickly frustrated and crowding the line, which is what the Steelers want.
The Seahawks will counter with the NFL’s latest version of a no-name defense. Seattle gets outstanding pressure from their front four, but linebackers Hill and Tatupu are what makes this team special. There is no quit in the Seahawk “D”, but their over-aggressiveness can lead to over pursuit, which can really hurt against a Steeler team that loves to set up the gimmick play. Seattle will play both man and zone in the secondary, with Marcus Trufant the only pure cover corner. The Seahawks will try and shut down one Steeler receiver, but which one? Trufant has had moments of brilliance, but was torched early and often by Jimmy Smith of the Jaguars, who I liken to Hines Ward. Seattle will have to rely on front four pressure and keep the linebackers and safeties in coverage.
While I give the Pittsburgh offense the nod over the Seattle defense, the Seahawk attack will have a definite impact on the game, both in terms of scoring and resting their defense. Mike Holmgren is widely viewed as playing the “purest” West Coast offense (WCO), most similar to his mentor, Bill Walsh. While the WCO is often thought of as "skill” scheme, make no mistake…the Seahawks have a very physical line and can bring it right to the Steelers. Like Pittsburgh, they will mix formations, add movement/motion, and they are extremely effective running from three-receiver sets. Their passing game is timing-based (WCO) and not vertical, but it's extremely efficient. Hasselbeck doesn’t throw deep often, but the in-between crossing routes should create open holes and the opportunity to throw deep a few times.
Pittsburgh plays a stock 3-4 defense that is predicated on a huge nosetackle to control the line of scrimmage. Casey Hampton fills the bill perfectly, taking on blocks and allowing inside linebackers Farrior and Foote to make the majority of tackles. Outside linebackers Porter and Haggans are great pass rushers, and the Steelers employ zone blitzes to effectively use their strength and speed. The Steelers frequently stunt their rushers, making free use of all four linebackers, looping them around each other to confuse blocking schemes. Human highlight film strong safety Troy Polamalu is a playmaker, and Pittsburgh designs their defenses to let him make an impact, especially on blitzes. Polamalu can be fooled into cheating up to the line, leaving (in my opinion) their vulnerable corners all alone.
During the playoffs I like to look at various statistics to help me break down the match ups, specifically rushing offense and defense. I don’t think that helps as much for the Super Bowl, as both teams are on the road in a unique circus-like environment. What we have to judge, or guess, is how each team will respond to the increasing hype, media attention, family asking for last-minute tickets, and a whole slew of competing factors. That, to me, is a crap shoot at best. I like to look at past Super Bowls to look for what has typically happened. While I’m not a huge trend guy during the season, I do like them for the big finale.
As we wrote last week, “The first total wasn’t available until 1982 when the Forty Niners beat the Bengals. Coincidentally, that game fell right on the posted 47, with San Fran winning 26-21. Since that inaugural push, we’ve seen 15 overs and 8 unders in the subsequent 23 Super Bowls. That 65% clip strongly suggests an over all by itself. Looking for patterns, we see there has never been two consecutive unders in the relatively short history of Super Bowl totals. With last year’s game sneaking under the 46.5 total, 24-21, we are set for an over in Detroit.” We see a lot of points coming from both passing games, so we’re sticking with our guns and cheering for points!
We’ve had a nice run in the playoffs, going 5-1 with a double-dip on the Patriots second half over. As we’re up almost 4 units, so we’re playing with house money.
Over 47 for One Unit.
Two Unit prop bet “budget.” I’ll keep the sum of all my prop bets, however many I finally decide to play, at 2 total units. For example, if my budget is $200 and I play 20 props, they will be for $10 a piece. If I only play 10 props, they’ll be for $20 each. This allows me to have some fun, still keep my head, and not bet too much.
Even if we get shut out this Sunday we’ll still show a post season profit.
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