Continued from Page 2
* Analysis by everyedge.com

Monday, January 8, 2007

Florida Gators vs. Ohio State Buckeyes – Tostitos BCS Championship, UP Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Grass)

The Brawl for It All. Everyone was expecting Ohio State to make it to the title fight, but many didn’t expect the Gators. Will Chris Leak be able to outdo Heisman trophy winner Troy Smith?

Line: OSU -7 (Opening: OSU -8)

Over/Under: 46 (Opening: 48)

Records: Florida 12-1 (3-7-3 ATS), Ohio State 12-0 (8-3-1 ATS)

Analysis: Ohio State will be playing their first game in 51 days and it’s for the national championship.

The Buckeyes ranked 7th in scoring (36.3) and are lead by Heisman Trophy winner QB Troy Smith (2,507 yards, 30-5 TD/INT). He has hooked up repeatedly with WRs Ted Ginn Jr. (781 yards, 9 TDs) and Anthony Gonzalez (723-8) but has also been aided by the running of RB Antonio Pittman (1,171 yards, 13 TDs).

Florida ranked 6th in stopping the run and have been stout all season. If they stop the run, Smith will be forced to throw more than the team would like. Florida CB Ryan Smith and S Reggie Nelson teamed for 14 picks and Troy Smith will have to be aware of them. The Gators are very strong up front (great pass rush) but their secondary is below-average.

Florida’s offense isn’t nearly as balanced as the Buckeyes but still averaged 28.5 points per game. QB Chris Leak ((2,729 yards, 22-13 TD/INT) has made lots of big plays and held off fan favorite freshman QB Tim Tebow to lead the team to this game. Tebow will still see some action and brings a running dimension. Leak can scramble but isn’t as good a runner as Tebow. WR Dallas Baker (897-9) leads a very talented receiving corps and the Gators will run a spread offense that Ohio State hasn’t faced this season.

The Gators don’t run well but will have to run some to keep the defense honest. The Bucks lost 9 starters to graduation and actually improved their numbers. They are lead by LB James Laurinaitis. Ohio State hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record since September (save Michigan) and they could have trouble with this spread offense. Their players aren’t used to making plays in space and look for the quick Florida wideouts to get some good yardage after the catch. The Gators played a tough schedule and coupled with these points, we feel the value lies with a battle-tested Florida squad. Take the Gators

Page 1, 2, 3