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What are players betting at Pinnacle Sports this week?

Washington +10 -113 vs. New Orleans

We opened the Redskins at +7 (-105) and immediately took hits from the sharps on the Saints. In addition to laying the 7, we also saw some point-buying down to -6.5. While we believe point-buying hurts a player over the long-term, the price of these half-points might be under priced if the closing line ends up very far from where the point-buying occurred. In this instance, the wise guys got the best of us.

Cincinnati +3 +107 vs. Indianapolis

For most of the year, the Colts were the public’s darling. The Colts’ poor run defense was overlooked, because their opponents were trailing by several scores and couldn’t emphasize the rushing game. Last week, the stats finally caught up to the Colts when their 32nd ranked run defense was torched for 375 yards by Jacksonville in the 44-17 blow out.

When a public team falls hard, sharps often take a contrarian posture. In this week’s most heavily traded game, the public is backing the Bengals by a 2:1 margin. The line however, has barely moved suggesting the sharps have lined up on the Colts to counterbalance the public.

Cincinnati/Indianapolis O/U 54.5

The total on the Monday Night game opened at 50.5, which slowly crept up. It’s not surprising that the price drifted up given memories of last year’s matchup between these two, when they scored 62 points in the first half! Compound that with the Colts’ anemic run defense, sprinkle on a little Monday Night Football bias, and there’s no telling how high this will go.

We are flat on this game, but are forced to move as the whole market climbs, or will get stuck with a large imbalance. Thus far, the sharps have not expressed an opinion on the total. In games with totals this high though, professionals will usually play the under near game time. In the last 10 years, playing the under for high-totaled games (52 and over) has gone 25-20-1.

Las Vegas Bowl: BYU -3.5 -105 vs. Oregon

Of the early Bowl games, this is the highest volume matchup. We opened BYU as 7-point favorites, but the early sharps sucked out all the value, backing the Ducks until the line stabilized where it is now. Although BYU is 10-2, they’re only ranked 19th due to a soft schedule. The Cougars played only one ranked team this year, losing to Boston College 23-20.

Oregon won its first four games and then stumbled, finishing the season at 7-5 with three consecutive losses. Although the two teams are very close in the computer rankings, Oregon’s season-ending slump is making a lot of players think twice before backing the Ducks.

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