This week, I'll get caught up on what's been going on through the first two weeks of the NFL Preseason. I'll start by looking at the current league results from an ATS and Over/Under perspective. That will be followed by a breakdown of that same data on a team-by-team basis. Each team report will also include a couple of top stories and/or early observations from the first two weeks of play.
JUST PICK THE WINNER!
The first week of the preseason was a strong one for bettors that like playing 'chalk' and also for over/under players that prefer the 'Under'. The final results for Week 1, including the Hall of Fame Game, came in at 10-7 in favor of the Under and at 11-5-1 for the point spread favorite. All five of the underdogs that cashed were of the small variety (+3 or less) and all five of them won their game outright. After originally opening closer to a pick'em, the Raiders/49'ers game closed with Oakland as a -3 point favorite. Note that I graded this game a 'push', based on the closing number, but players that bet the favorite early would have cashed winning tickets.
Week 2 was another extremely strong one for both Under and chalk players. After the Chiefs win and cover on Monday night the favorites held a 10-5-1 advantage. (Note: I used the Broncos as a favorite in their game vs. the Seahawks. Seattle opened the favorite but Denver closed at -2 or -2.5) Just like in Week 1, all five of those underdog winners won their game outright. The lone push came from the Buffalo/Tennessee game. The line on this game bounced around from a pick'em to the Titans being a -1.5 point favorite. For the purposes of this column I designated the Titans as a -1 point favorite and graded the game a push. However, astute line shoppers would have cashed a ticket regardless of which side they bet.
10 of the 16 games fell Under the number.
That brings the current YTD over/under totals to 20-13 (60.6%) in favor of the Under and the YTD ATS stats to 21-10-2 (67.7%) for the favorite, with all 10 of those underdogs winning in SU fashion. To put that another way, that means, if one eliminates the two games that landed right on the number, that in ALL 31 of the other games, the SU winner also covered the spread. The point spread was never even an issue!
TEAM REPORTS
It is often said that it is never wise to read too much out of a team's preseason performance. That is true to a certain extent. However, it's no coincidence that both of last year's Super Bowl finalists, the Patriots and the Panthers, were a perfect 4-0 in preseason last year. Other teams definitely noticed their success and there appears to be a greater emphasis on winning these games then in years past. Below, I've offered a few tidbits of info from each team. Note that after only two weeks the Titans, Panthers, and Bears are the only undefeated teams remaining!
AFC East
BUFFALO BILLS
SU Record: 1-1
ATS Record: 1-0-1
O/U Record: 0-2
NOTES: Bills defense is playing well, allowing just 11 points per game. Travis Henry is still scheduled to be the starting back but suffered bruised ribs vs. the Titans and had to leave the game early. Willis McGahee scored a touchdown in relief.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
SU Record: 1-1
ATS Record: 1-1
O/U Record: 0-2
NOTES: Dolphins managed only 5 first downs and 98 total yards of offense vs. Washington. The offense drew boos from the crowd of 30,000. WR Marty Booker was recently acquired from the Bears in exchange for Pro Bowl defensive end Ogunleye.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
SU Record: 1-1
ATS Record: 1-1
O/U Record: 0-1
NOTES: Patriots saw their preseason win streak snapped at eight games with their 31-3 blowout loss to the Bengals.
NEW YORK JETS
SU Record: 1-1
ATS Record: 1-1
O/U Record: 1-1
NOTES: After seeing limited action in Week 1, Pennington was outstanding in Week 2 win vs. the Colts. He finished 10 for 11 with 169 yards and a touchdown. Quincy Carter has just signed on as a backup.
AFC West
DENVER BRONCOS
SU Record: 1-2
ATS Record: 1-2
O/U Record: 1-2
NOTES: After dropping their first two games, Shanahan's crew got back on track with a dominating defensive effort at Seattle.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
SU Record: 1-1
ATS Record: 1-1
O/U Record: 1-1
NOTES: The Chiefs defense didn't look any better then last year in giving up 34 points vs. the Giants in Week 1 but showed vast improvement on Monday night vs. the Rams.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
SU Record: 1-1
ATS Record: 0-1-1
O/U Record: 2-0
NOTES: Raiders played without #2 overall pick Robert Gallery (elbow). Kerry Collins completed an 89 yard TD pass in the loss vs. the Cowboys. Gannon is still the starter...for now.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
SU Record: 1-1
ATS Record: 1-1
O/U Record: 2-0
NOTES: Rivers remains unsigned but Drew Brees is trying to convince Charger fans that it doesn't matter. After going 11 for 14 for 156 yards and a TD in Week 1, Brees threw for 172 yards and a TD in a 13 for 21 effort in Week 2.
AFC North
BALTIMORE RAVENS
SU Record: 1-1
ATS Record: 1-1
O/U Record: 1-1
NOTES: After shutting down the Falcons in Week 1, the Ravens got lit up for 26 points in Week 2. Center Mike Flynn is out 6-8 weeks.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
SU Record: 1-1
ATS Record: 1-1
O/U Record: 0-2
NOTES: The Carson Palmer era in Cincinnati has officially begun! Palmer threw for 179 yards and 3 TD's in the Bengals rout of the defending champs. Bengal fans booed Pats RB Corey Dillon, who had a poor game, and cheered Rudi Johnson.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
SU Record: 1-1
ATS Record: 1-1
O/U Record: 1-1
NOTES: After a dismal effort in Week 1, the Browns rebounded with a win vs. Detroit in Week 2. Concerns remain.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
SU Record: 1-1
ATS Record: 1-1
O/U Record: 2-0
NOTES: Steelers were dominant in beating up on the Texans. Right Guard Kendall Simmons is gone for the year.
AFC South
HOUSTON OILERS
SU Record: 1-1
ATS Record: 1-1
O/U Record: 1-1
NOTES: Texans were really sharp in their opening Week 18-0 win and really bad in their 38-3 loss in Week 2 . Which team will show up for Week 3?
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
SU Record: 1-1
ATS Record: 1-1
O/U Record: 0-2
NOTES: Defense has been strong, allowing just 11 points per game. Team all-time sack leader Tony Brackens has been released.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
SU Record: 1-1
ATS Record: 1-1
O/U Record: 1-1
NOTES: Colts haven't looked strong. They got a last second TD to beat the Chargers and then got thumped by the Jets.
TENNESSEE TITANS
SU Record: 2-0
ATS Record: 1-0-1
O/U Record: 0-2
NOTES: Titans have now won 6 straight preseason games.
NFC East
DALLAS COWBOYS
SU Record: 1-1
ATS Record: 1-1
O/U Record: 1-1
NOTES: The Cowboys first team offense has been kept out of the end zone in both their games.
NY GIANTS
SU Record: 1-1
ATS Record: 1-1
O/U Record: 2-0
NOTES: Manning was 9 for 15 for 117 yards in his start vs. Carolina. Not bad considering how terrible his offensive line appears to be. Warner was sacked on first two plays and 4x overall. He also threw an INT for a TD.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
SU Record: 1-1
ATS Record: 1-1
O/U Record: 1-1
NOTES: Terrell Owens catches 81 yard TD pass on his first play at home as an Eagle. Philly won the game but lost RB Correll Buckhalter to injury.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
SU Record: 2-1
ATS Record: 2-1
O/U Record: 2-1
NOTES: Redskins come off a shutout win and have looked relatively solid so far. After throwing 4 INT's in their second game the offense committed no turnovers vs. Miami. Redskins ran for 181 yards.
NFC West
ARIZONA CARDINALS
SU Record: 0-2
ATS Record: 0-2
O/U Record: 1-1
NOTES: Cardinals have looked downright awful the first two weeks. Playing without all three starting receivers (Boldin, Fitzgerald, Johnson are all injured) doesn't help matters.
SAN FRANCISCO 49'ERS
SU Record: 0-2
ATS Record: 0-1-1
O/U Record: 1-1
NOTES: This could be a long year.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
SU Record: 1-1
ATS Record: 1-1
O/U Record: 0-2
NOTES: LB Chad Brown is out for at least the first four games of the regular season with a broken leg.
ST LOUIS RAMS
SU Record: 0-2
ATS Record: 0-2
O/U Record: 0-2
NOTES: Rams have looked bad and have managed only 17 points in two games. Cornerback Travis Fisher, who tied for the team lead in INT's last year, broke his arm vs. the Chiefs.
NFC North
CHICAGO BEARS
SU Record: 2-0
ATS Record: 2-0
O/U Record: 0-2
NOTES: They paid a fairly steep price (Booker) to get him, but landing Ogunleye should turn out to be a good move.
DETROIT LIONS
SU Record: 1-1
ATS Record: 1-1
O/U Record: 1-1
NOTES: Lions were impressive in Week 1 but struggled against the lowly Browns in Week 2. Charles Rogers hauled in a TD catch but Roy Williams has yet to catch a pass.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
SU Record: 1-1
ATS Record: 1-1
O/U Record: 0-2
NOTES: Packers were much better in their Week 2 win. All except for Tim Couch - who was horrible again.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
SU Record: 1-1
ATS Record: 1-1
O/U Record: 1-1
NOTES: Tice has made it publicly known that he wants to win in the preseason. Still, after beating up on Arizona in Week 1, the Vikings couldn't top the Falcons in Week 2.
NFC South
CAROLINA PANTHERS
SU Record: 2-0
ATS Record: 2-0
O/U Record: 2-0
NOTES: Delhomme and the Panthers have looked very strong. Concerns remain along the offensive line.
ATLANTA FALCONS
SU Record: 1-1
ATS Record: 1-1
O/U Record: 1-1
NOTES: Rookie Matt Schaub was impressive at QB helping lead the Falcons back from a 17 point deficit. Schaub threw three TD's and was 16 of 19 for 205 yards. QB controversy in Atlanta? I think not.
NEW ORLEANS
SU Record: 1-1
ATS Record: 1-1
O/U Record: 1-1
NOTES: After an impressive showing in Week 1, the Saints turned the ball over four times in Week 2. QB Brooks tweaked his strained right thigh and hobbled off the field.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
SU Record: 1-1
ATS Record: 1-1
O/U Record: 0-2
NOTES: First team offense struggled vs. the Jaguars, managing only 21 yards of offense in the opening half. Chris Simms has been the best QB to date.
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