The very first nationally published article I wrote (in Winner's Edge magazine) contained a football quote by Bill Parcells, the master at winning and covering preseason contests. Parcells stated, "People who think preseason football is meaningless don't know anything about football."

Preseason success is a remarkably accurate barometer in determining a teams' success during the regular season. Did you know that 30 out of the previous 38 Super Bowl champions (78.9%) won .500 or more of their preseason contests straight up? You do now! Since Super Bowl I, the 38 winning teams had a combined preseason margin of 115 - 65 - 2 or 63.7% straight up. Marv Levy was one coach who didn't take the preseason seriously; he had a losing record in three of the four preseason years that Buffalo advanced to the Super Bowl. Perhaps that is one of the reasons why the Bills went 0 - 4 straight up!

Consider last year, the two Super Bowl opponents, New England and Carolina went a combined 8 - 0 straight up in the preseason. Free agency and parity as well as salary caps have changed the way the game is played since 1993. When reviewing the past decade, I noted the following preseason records with regards to the past 10 Super Bowl champions.

1994 - the 49ers went 3 - 1.
1995 - the Cowboys went 2 - 3.
1996 - the Packers 3 - 1.
1997 - the Broncos went 3 - 2.
1998 - the Broncos went 3 - 1.
1999 - the Rams went 2 - 2.
2000 - the Ravens went 4 - 0.
2001 - the Patriots went 3 - 1.
2002 - the Buccaneers went 3 - 1.
2003 - the Patriots went 4 - 0.

The past decade produced a 30 - 12 or 71.4% preseason record and only the Cowboys (1995) had a losing record in the preseason.

Since 1995 the final four playoff teams combined for a record of 95 - 53 or 64.2%. The last time the final four participants did not fare well in preseason contests was in 1994 when the four went a combined 6 - 12 straight up. Only one of those four teams had a winning record; and that team was San Francisco. The 49ers went on to crush the Chargers in that Super Bowl played in Miami.

As stated the Panthers went 4 - 0 in last years' preseason contests vs. a 1 - 3 record in 2002. Last year the Panthers were 12 - 4 in the regular season vs. a 7 - 9 regular season record in 2002.

So, if a team achieves success in the exhibition games and can remain healthy during this 2004 campaign, will they advance to the post season? Based on a 38-year history of tracking preseason contests, the answer is yes!