SOURCE: NJIT via ScienceMode.com

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The Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres, who had to play a tie-breaker to decide the wild card team in 2007 look like they might have to do it again, playing for the NL West title, both winning 85 games in 2008.

The Arizona Diamondbacks should be close behind with 83 wins and the Los Angeles Dodgers can expect 82. Only the San Francisco Giants should lag with 75.

The expected number of wins for each team is:

* AL East: Yankees – 98; Red Sox – 98; Blue Jays – 86; Rays – 75; Orioles – 63;
* AL Central: Tigers – 96; Indians – 87; White Sox – 79; Twins – 74; Royals 63;
* AL West: Angels – 92; Mariners – 78; A’s – 75; Rangers – 70;
* NL East: Mets – 92; Braves – 89; Phillies – 84; Nationals – 73; Marlins – 70;
* NL Central: Brewers – 84; Cubs – 83; Reds – 81; Cards – 80; Astros – 79; Pirates – 71;
* NL West: Rockies – 85; Padres – 85; Diamondbacks – 83; Dodgers – 82; Giants – 75;

“These results give a guide of how teams ought to perform during the season but there are so many unknowns, especially concerning trades, injuries and how rookies will perform that cannot be taken into account,” added Bukiet.

Operations Research published Bukiet’s original mathematical model on which his predictions are based.

The model computes the probability of a team winning a game against another team with given hitters, bench, starting pitcher, relievers and home field advantage.

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